{"id":36046,"date":"2022-07-25T18:49:29","date_gmt":"2022-07-25T21:49:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insurancecorp.com.br\/pt\/?p=36046"},"modified":"2022-07-25T18:49:29","modified_gmt":"2022-07-25T21:49:29","slug":"pec-das-bondades-traz-impactos-distintos-no-curto-e-no-longo-prazo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insurancecorp.com.br\/pt\/2022\/07\/25\/pec-das-bondades-traz-impactos-distintos-no-curto-e-no-longo-prazo\/","title":{"rendered":"PEC das \u201cBondades\u201d traz impactos distintos no curto e no longo prazo"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>As proje\u00e7\u00f5es compiladas no relat\u00f3rio Focus desta semana continuam a mostrar os efeitos das medidas recentemente aprovadas para conter a alta dos pre\u00e7os dos combust\u00edveis e aumentar as transfer\u00eancias de renda at\u00e9 o final deste ano, com impactos distintos no curto e no longo prazo: tanto a infla\u00e7\u00e3o quanto o crescimento do PIB melhoram no curto prazo, mas t\u00eam seus resultados comprometidos de 2023 em diante.\u00a0 A mediana das proje\u00e7\u00f5es para a varia\u00e7\u00e3o do PIB em 2022 subiu para 1,93%. Para o ano que vem, entretanto, a proje\u00e7\u00e3o mediana apresentou leve queda, chegando aos 0,49%. O mesmo ocorreu com a proje\u00e7\u00e3o para o IPCA: caiu expressivos 0,25p.p., para 7,3% em 2022, mas subiu 0,1p.p. para o ano que vem, chegando aos 5,3%. O economista Pedro Sim\u00f5es, do Comit\u00ea de Estudos de Mercado da Confedera\u00e7\u00e3o Nacional das Seguradoras (CNseg), destaca no boletim\u00a0sobre expectativas econ\u00f4micas\u00a0desta segunda-feira, 25\u00a0de julho, que a meta da infla\u00e7\u00e3o para o ano que vem \u00e9 3,25%, como definido pelo Conselho Monet\u00e1rio Nacional (CMN), com bandas de toler\u00e2ncia sim\u00e9tricas de 1,5p.p..\u00a0 \u201cOu seja, a proje\u00e7\u00e3o de infla\u00e7\u00e3o para o ano que vem j\u00e1 est\u00e1 acima do teto da meta, de 4,75% e continua a subir. Indicadores tradicionais da confian\u00e7a na pol\u00edtica fiscal, como os juros futuros e os indicadores de risco-pa\u00eds, deram sinais inequ\u00edvocos de que tais medidas \u2013 sendo a mais recente PEC 1\/2022, tamb\u00e9m conhecida como das \u201cBondades\u201d \u2013 deterioraram as expectativas para a situa\u00e7\u00e3o fiscal do Pa\u00eds, o que alimenta o quadro descrito nas proje\u00e7\u00f5es acima\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Sim\u00f5es chama a aten\u00e7\u00e3o para os poss\u00edveis efeitos das expectativas de infla\u00e7\u00e3o em alta para o ano que vem e percep\u00e7\u00e3o de pol\u00edtica fiscal mais expansiva. \u201cO Banco Central pode sentir press\u00e3o por mais aumentos na Selic, ainda que se entenda que os efeitos do ajuste j\u00e1 realizado desde o ano passado ocorrem com defasagem e, portanto, n\u00e3o ocorreram plenamente\u201d, avalia.<\/p>\n<p>As proje\u00e7\u00f5es para a Selic se mantiveram est\u00e1veis essa semana, mas, pela primeira vez, j\u00e1 h\u00e1 institui\u00e7\u00f5es consultadas pelo Focus projetando Selic ao final deste ano acima de 15%, quando se observa a estat\u00edstica de m\u00e1ximo das expectativas. Como nota positiva, vale destacar o impacto dos resultados melhores que o esperado nas \u00faltimas divulga\u00e7\u00f5es da PNAD Cont\u00ednua, mostrando o mercado de trabalho se recuperado com um pouco mais de for\u00e7a. A proje\u00e7\u00e3o para a taxa de desocupa\u00e7\u00e3o m\u00e9dia vem caindo h\u00e1 v\u00e1rias semanas, tanto para este quanto para o pr\u00f3ximo ano.<\/p>\n<p>Leia a \u00edntegra do <a href=\"https:\/\/cnseg.org.br\/data\/files\/45\/A3\/87\/CD\/3A632810167213283A8AA8A8\/20220725_expectativas_economicas.pdf\">boletim<\/a>\u00a0Acompanhamento de Expectativas\u00a0Econ\u00f4micas\u00a0semanal feito pela Superintend\u00eancia de Estudos e Projetos (Suesp) da CNseg, no portal de CNseg.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Assessoria de Imprensa CNseg<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As proje\u00e7\u00f5es compiladas no relat\u00f3rio Focus desta semana continuam a mostrar os efeitos das medidas recentemente aprovadas para conter a alta dos pre\u00e7os dos combust\u00edveis e aumentar as transfer\u00eancias de renda at\u00e9 o final deste ano, com impactos distintos no curto e no longo prazo: tanto a infla\u00e7\u00e3o quanto o crescimento do PIB melhoram no [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":36047,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[75],"tags":[587,5059,5058,5060,5057],"class_list":["post-36046","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cnseg","tag-cnseg","tag-curto","tag-impactos-distintos","tag-longo-prazo","tag-pec-das-bondades"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>PEC das \u201cBondades\u201d traz impactos distintos no curto e no longo prazo | Revista Insurance Corp | PT-BR<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/insurancecorp.com.br\/pt\/2022\/07\/25\/pec-das-bondades-traz-impactos-distintos-no-curto-e-no-longo-prazo\/\" \/>\n<meta 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